A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
